Andrew Silverman looks ahead to a General Election which looks set to redefine the UK's political landscape once again...
The accepted wisdom is that the world of two party politics is over, and that coalitions will govern the UK for the foreseeable future. This is backed up by the polling figures for our major parties, with Labour and the Conservatives flat lining below the crucial 35% mark and the Liberal Democrats registering far below the 22% achieved in 2010. When you add UKIP, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru to the mix, the electoral roadmap becomes wholly imponderable for laymen and expert pundits alike.
There are, however, some certainties about the 2015 – 2020 Parliament that will be there regardless of whoever forms the next Government. These are the issues that cannot be shirked, or blamed on the EU or immigration, and they will have to be dealt with to secure our economic survival in an increasingly volatile world.
In financial terms, an incoming Government will need to have a plan to deal with our budget deficit and the fact that as a nation we are still spending well beyond our means.
It will have to reconcile this with an increasing demand for public services, and this principally means the NHS. Without a plan for deficit management, new Ministers could risk a negative reaction in the financial markets and a catastrophic rise in the cost of borrowing.
Where our foreign policy is concerned, the issue of the EU will loom large over all parties, particularly where UKIP and the Conservatives are concerned. The immediate issue for an incoming Government is unlikely to be EU membership, as this is likely to be transcended by our response to the security crisis emanating from Syria, Iraq and West Africa.
New Ministers will have to decide the extent of UK involvement in any international approach to deal with the threats from these regions, and whether “boots on the ground” will ever be conscionable again for MPs.
Domestic policy will be governed by the extent to which an incoming Government “top slices” Whitehall budgets and diverts these funds to the devolved administrations and English regions. History has shown that those who speak most about localism and decentralisation err towards the opposite when in power and take a more centrist stance.
It is likely that this option will not exist in the 2015 – 2020 Parliament, given the commitment of all parties to reach a new constitutional settlement and the increasingly vocal stance taken by the UK’s major regions.
With this combination of challenges facing a new Government we will really be in an entirely new territory; with the additional potential for new MPs who are not imbued with the traditions of Westminster politics taking a different approach to their long-standing colleagues. Their propensity to observe a “Party Whip” will also be much less likely given the trend for weaker central control, as demonstrated by the respective Leaders’ offices.
So in policy, administrative and political party terms, things really “aren’t like they used to used to be”. The only question remaining is to what degree voters embrace this new world and desert their historical political allegiances for good.
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